Canadian Federal Election 2008

You Yanks aren't the only ones with a market on elections this season, eh?

That line, uttered by an imaginary Canadian who lives in my own mind, refers to the fact that there are two major elections in North America this fall. The first, long planned on a regular schedule that dates back to the late 1700's, is the US Presidential and Congressional election. The second, which will occur first, has only been in the works since September.

Canada will be having a general election on October 14, 2008. This will be the 40th Canadian federal election. The election was called when Prime Minister Stephen Harper asked the Governor General to dissolve Parliament and call elections. The Prime Minister and Governor General split the roles of the US President. The Governor General is a ceremonial position, while the Prime Minister is acknowledged as the leader of the country, fulfilling the decision making roles that our President does.

The Prime Minister is also similar to our Speaker of the House of Representatives. Like the Speaker of the House, the Prime Minister is elected to the Canadian House of Commons as a representative of an election district and is not elected directly to the office by a vote of the whole country. The members of the House of Commons, including the Prime Minister, are called 'MPs' for Members of Parliament. The district they represent is called a 'riding.' The Prime Minister's riding is called Calgary Southwest. Most of the ridings have geographic names rather than the generic state and number labels given to US Congressional Districts, ex. the Georgia First Congressional District. Some of the ridings in Canada are named for people in the province of Quebec, and some riding names are quite creative, such as Wild Rose in Alberta.

Canada operates under a Westminster system of government similar to the United Kingdom/Great Britain. As in our American system, there is both an upper house and a lower house in the legislative branch. The main difference is that in Canada and Britian, most of the executive power rests in the lower house of the legislative branch. Both nations call the lower house the House of Commons. The Canadian upper house, the Senate, is made up of appointed members whose function is ceremonial to a great degree.

Power in the Canadian House of Commons rests with the political party that gets the greatest number of its members elected to the House. The last election in 2006 saw the Conservatives come out with the greatest number of MPs. Their win ended a thirteen year run in power for their main competitors, the rival Liberal party. However, the Conservatives did not get over half the seats in the House, meaning that they are called a minority government. The Conservatives elect one of their own as Prime Minister, they appoint member to the cabinet, they are the governing party, but the other parties have more total members.

Which brings us back to the upcoming election. Prime Minister Harper decided to call for elections to try and increase his party's numbers in the House of Commons. Elections have to be called no later than five years from the last election, but can be called at anytime in between. This often occurs when the governing party thinks its popularity is at a peak, allowing them to maintain or increase the number of MPs they have in Parliament. Sometimes the governing party will wait until the last minute to hold an election if they are unpopular, hoping that their polling will improve before time. The old Progressive Conservative party tried this in 1993 to no avail. All of their members but two were defeated.

When elections were called, things looked good for Harper and the Conservatives. However, polls have tightened due in large part to a decline in the Canadian economy as a result of the financial office here in the US. It now looks as though the Conservatives will maintain their current amount of representation, with perhaps a slight increase. Still, anything could happen. Liberal leader Stephane Dion, referred to as the Leader of the Opposition in the House, is not viewed as the Liberal's greatest leader ever. Jack Layton leads the New Democratic Party, the third largest party in Canada, which is strong in Ontario and British Columbia. The fourth party, the Bloc Quebecois, is lead by Gilles Duceppe and is a regional party concerned with independence for the provence of Quebec. The Bloc does not field candidates outside Quebec. The Green Party has seen a slight rise in its modest support. The Conservatives, also called the Tories, are seeing a dip in their popularity as the election approaches.

It may all come down to Ontario. If the Conservatives take away seats in Ontario from the Liberals, it will probably be viewed as a successful election for them, especially if they come to hold the majority of the Ontario seats. The Conservatives will also be looking to take away seats from the Bloc in Quebec. Atlantic Canada is a strong area for the Liberals, while the Prarie Provinces, especially Alberta, are strong for the Conservatives.

Here are some links related to the Canadian election:

Election Prediction Project
A Blog on the election
Hill and Knowlton Election Prediction Project

The election should be covered by C-SPAN or C-SPAN2 here in the USA. They usually show the feed from the CBC for a few hours. Will the Conservatives Party continue to drop? Will the New Democrats close in on the Liberals as the second biggest party? Will the Edmonton Oilers win the Stanley Cup this year? Tune in and find out.

JWF